Economy & Fed · Kalshi · Closes Dec 9, 2026
Fed decision in December 2026: Will the Fed cut 25bps? Odds
As of Nov 12, 2026 04:05 UTC, traders on Kalshi put Hike 25bps at 86%, up 1 point in 24 hours. $804K traded in the last 24 hours; $8.9M in total.
- Hike 25bps 85%
- Hike >25bps 11%
- Fed maintains rate 5%
- Cut >25bps 1%
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | 86% | +1 |
| Hike >25bps | 11% | −1 |
| Fed maintains rate | 5% | ±0 |
| Cut >25bps | 1% | ±0 |
| Cut 25bps | 1% | ±0 |
About this market
This Kalshi market asks what the Federal Reserve will decide on its interest rate at the meeting on December 9, 2026. The listed outcomes cover a hike of 25bps, a hike of more than 25bps, no change to the rate, a cut of more than 25bps, and a cut of 25bps. This page covers the outcome tied to a 25bps cut: according to the rules, it resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25bps on December 9, 2026. The market closes on that date. Prices can shift with new inflation and employment data, statements and speeches from Fed officials, minutes of earlier meetings, shifts in financial conditions, and broader economic or political developments that change expectations about monetary policy.
FAQ
What are the current odds for “Fed decision in December 2026: Will the Fed cut 25bps?”?
At our last update (Nov 12, 2026 04:05 UTC), Kalshi traders priced Hike 25bps at 86%. Prices move with trading and are not a forecast by That's Gonna.
When does this market resolve?
The market closes on December 9, 2026, the date of the Federal Reserve decision it refers to.
How does this market resolve?
It resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve cuts its rate by 25bps on December 9, 2026.
Odds are market prices set by traders, not predictions by That's Gonna and not financial or betting advice. 18+ only; platform eligibility varies by country and state.