Economy & Fed · Polymarket · Closes Dec 10, 2026
Fed Decision in December? Odds
As of Nov 12, 2026 04:05 UTC, traders on Polymarket put 25 bps increase at 86%, little changed over 24 hours. $1.4M traded in the last 24 hours; $26.3M in total.
- 25 bps increase 86%
- 50+ bps increase 10%
- No change 4%
- 25 bps decrease <1%
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 86% | ±0 |
| 50+ bps increase | 10% | −1.3 |
| No change | 4% | ±0 |
| 25 bps decrease | <1% | ±0 |
| 50+ bps decrease | <1% | ±0 |
View the market on Polymarket ↗
About this market
This market asks what the US Federal Reserve will do with interest rates at its December 2026 meeting. It tracks the change, in basis points, to the upper limit of the target federal funds range, compared with the level in place before that meeting. Results can be an increase, a cut, or no change at all. If the new range falls between the listed brackets, the move is rounded up to the closest bracket. Resolution relies on the statement from the Federal Open Market Committee, with the Federal Reserve website as a reference. If no statement appears in time, the market resolves to no change. Inflation readings, jobs data, growth figures, remarks from Fed officials and shifts in financial conditions can all influence expectations ahead of the meeting.
FAQ
What are the current odds for “Fed Decision in December?”?
At our last update (Nov 12, 2026 04:05 UTC), Polymarket traders priced 25 bps increase at 86%. Prices move with trading and are not a forecast by That's Gonna.
When does this market resolve?
The market is listed with a close date of 2026-12-10. It can resolve as soon as the FOMC issues its statement for the December 2026 meeting with the relevant rate information.
How does this market resolve?
It resolves to the bracket matching the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range versus its level before the December 2026 meeting. Changes that fall between brackets are rounded up to the nearest 25 bps bracket.
Odds are market prices set by traders, not predictions by That's Gonna and not financial or betting advice. 18+ only; platform eligibility varies by country and state.