Warren and Merkley Raise Ethics Concerns Over Trump Aide's Prediction Market Bets

Two US senators, Warren and Merkley, have raised ethics concerns about bets placed on prediction markets by an aide to President Donald Trump, according to a report published by The Block on November 11.

The concerns follow a regulatory action from earlier this year involving the aide, Gabriel Perez.

What the CFTC said happened

In August, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission directed Perez to pay more than $172,000. The agency's action stemmed from allegations that he read Trump's prepared remarks shortly before the president delivered them. He then allegedly used that knowledge to place bets on Kalshi's mention markets.

The source material does not describe how the CFTC reached its decision, what the payment covers, or whether Perez responded to the allegations. Those details are not available here, and this article does not speculate about them.

How mention markets work

Mention markets are a type of event contract. They let traders take positions on whether a particular word or phrase will be said during a speech, interview or similar appearance. The price of each contract reflects the probability traders collectively assign to that outcome. It is not a certainty.

Because these contracts depend on what a speaker actually says, advance access to a script is the kind of information that can matter. That is the core of the allegation against Perez, as described in the report.

Why the senators' concerns matter

The senators' intervention moves the issue beyond a single enforcement action and into the territory of government ethics. Questions about whether officials and their staff should trade on markets tied to their own work have surfaced repeatedly as prediction markets have grown, and this case gives lawmakers a concrete example to point to.

The source does not detail what Warren and Merkley have asked for or whom they have addressed. It says only that they raised ethics concerns over the aide's bets.

What to watch next

Several questions remain open based on the information available:

• Whether the senators' concerns lead to any formal response from the White House or other officials.
• Whether regulators or lawmakers pursue rules on trading by government employees on event contracts.
• Whether platforms such as Kalshi change how they handle markets that depend on non-public information.

None of these outcomes is confirmed in the reporting so far. The Block was the only outlet in the source set to carry the story alongside one other, and further coverage may clarify the details.