Tech & AI · Kalshi · Closes Dec 31, 2026
Best AI at the end of 2026? Odds
As of Nov 12, 2026 04:05 UTC, traders on Kalshi put Gemini at 71%, up 5.2 points in 24 hours. $190K traded in the last 24 hours; $18.4M in total.
- Gemini 68%
- Claude 25%
- ChatGPT 4%
- Kimi 1%
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Gemini | 71% | +5.2 |
| Claude | 23% | −2.5 |
| ChatGPT | 4% | ±0 |
| Kimi | 1% | ±0 |
| Muse | 0.9% | ±0 |
| Grok | 0.7% | ±0 |
| Qwen | 0.7% | ±0 |
| Ernie | <1% | ±0 |
About this market
This Kalshi market asks which AI will be the best at the end of 2026, as determined on December 31, 2026. There are eight possible outcomes: Gemini, Claude, ChatGPT, Kimi, Muse, Grok, Qwen and Ernie. The rules text provided spells out the case for Baidu: if Baidu has the top-ranked LLM on December 31, 2026, that outcome resolves to Yes. The market closes on December 31, 2026. Developments that could move it include new model launches, major upgrades to existing models, changes in public rankings or benchmark results, and announcements from the AI developers involved. Live odds and volume are displayed separately on this page and come from the market itself.
FAQ
What are the current odds for “Best AI at the end of 2026?”?
At our last update (Nov 12, 2026 04:05 UTC), Kalshi traders priced Gemini at 71%. Prices move with trading and are not a forecast by That's Gonna.
When does this market resolve?
The market closes on December 31, 2026, and the question is evaluated as of that date.
How does this market resolve?
According to the rules provided, if Baidu has the top-ranked LLM on December 31, 2026, the market resolves to Yes for that outcome.
Odds are market prices set by traders, not predictions by That's Gonna and not financial or betting advice. 18+ only; platform eligibility varies by country and state.