Tech & AI · Polymarket · Closes Dec 1, 2026
Which company has the best AI model end of November? Odds
As of Nov 12, 2026 04:05 UTC, traders on Polymarket put Google at 80%, down 2.5 points in 24 hours. $155K traded in the last 24 hours; $1.4M in total.
- Google 80%
- Anthropic 20%
- OpenAI 1%
- Meta <1%
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| 80% | −2.5 | |
| Anthropic | 20% | +5 |
| OpenAI | 1% | ±0 |
| Meta | <1% | ±0 |
| Alibaba | <1% | ±0 |
| Moonshot | <1% | ±0 |
| Baidu | <1% | ±0 |
| Z.ai | <1% | ±0 |
| Xiaomi | <1% | ±0 |
| SpaceXAI | <1% | ±0 |
| DeepSeek | <1% | ±0 |
| Amazon | <1% | ±0 |
| ByteDance | <1% | ±0 |
| Nvidia | <1% | ±0 |
| Thinky | <1% | ±0 |
View the market on Polymarket ↗
About this market
This market asks which company will own the top-ranked AI model at the end of November. It resolves using the arena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard, with style control off and the view filtered to models. The leaderboard is checked at midday Eastern Time on the last day of November. Models are ordered by their rank, ties are broken by the underlying arena score, and any remaining tie goes to alphabetical order of company names. Models marked AutoEval at check time are not considered. If the leaderboard is unavailable, the market stays open until it returns. Movements may follow new model releases, leaderboard shifts as votes accumulate, changes in how models are evaluated, or announcements from the labs.
FAQ
What are the current odds for “Which company has the best AI model end of November?”?
At our last update (Nov 12, 2026 04:05 UTC), Polymarket traders priced Google at 80%. Prices move with trading and are not a forecast by That's Gonna.
When does this market resolve?
The leaderboard is checked at midday Eastern Time on the last day of November. The market is listed as closing on 2026-12-01. If the leaderboard is unavailable at check time, the market stays open until it comes back.
How does this market resolve?
It resolves to the company that owns the model in first place on the arena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard, with style control off. Ties are settled by the underlying arena score, then by alphabetical order of company names. Models marked AutoEval are excluded.
Odds are market prices set by traders, not predictions by That's Gonna and not financial or betting advice. 18+ only; platform eligibility varies by country and state.