Politics · Polymarket · Closes Nov 8, 2028
Who will be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee? Odds
As of Nov 12, 2026 04:05 UTC, traders on Polymarket put J.D. Vance at 31%, little changed over 24 hours. $330K traded in the last 24 hours; $734M in total.
- J.D. Vance 31%
- Marco Rubio 18%
- Ron DeSantis 15%
- Tucker Carlson 4%
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 31% | ±0 |
| Marco Rubio | 18% | ±0 |
| Ron DeSantis | 15% | −0.6 |
| Tucker Carlson | 4% | ±0 |
| John McEntee | 4% | ±0 |
| Ted Cruz | 3% | ±0 |
| Thomas Massie | 3% | −0.5 |
| Brian Kemp | 3% | ±0 |
| Glenn Youngkin | 2% | ±0 |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1% | ±0 |
| Donald Trump | 0.9% | ±0 |
| Byron Donalds | 0.9% | ±0 |
| Nikki Haley | 0.7% | ±0 |
| Josh Hawley | 0.7% | ±0 |
| Rand Paul | 0.7% | ±0 |
View the market on Polymarket ↗
About this market
This market asks who will win the Republican Party's nomination for U.S. president in 2028. Each listed person has their own Yes/No market. A market resolves to Yes if that individual wins and accepts the 2028 Republican nomination, and to No otherwise. Resolution relies on a consensus of official Republican Party sources. If the nominee is replaced after the nomination but before election day, the resolution does not change. The market is scheduled to close on 2028-11-08. Events that could move the market in general include candidates announcing or ruling out a run, primary and caucus results, endorsements, fundraising reports, polling shifts, party developments, and major political or news events affecting a candidate's standing.
FAQ
What are the current odds for “Who will be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?”?
At our last update (Nov 12, 2026 04:05 UTC), Polymarket traders priced J.D. Vance at 31%. Prices move with trading and are not a forecast by That's Gonna.
When does this market close?
The market is scheduled to close on 2028-11-08.
How does this market resolve?
It resolves to Yes if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for U.S. president, and to No otherwise. A consensus of official Republican Party sources is used, and replacing the nominee before election day does not change the resolution.
Odds are market prices set by traders, not predictions by That's Gonna and not financial or betting advice. 18+ only; platform eligibility varies by country and state.