Politics · Polymarket · Closes Nov 8, 2028
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election? Odds
As of Nov 12, 2026 04:05 UTC, traders on Polymarket put Jon Ossoff at 17%, little changed over 24 hours. $720K traded in the last 24 hours; $739M in total.
- Jon Ossoff 17%
- JD Vance 17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 10%
- Marco Rubio 9%
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | 17% | ±0 |
| JD Vance | 17% | ±0 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 10% | ±0 |
| Marco Rubio | 9% | ±0 |
| Gavin Newsom | 8% | ±0 |
| Ron DeSantis | 6% | +0.5 |
| Kamala Harris | 3% | ±0 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 3% | ±0 |
| Josh Shapiro | 3% | ±0 |
| Andy Beshear | 2% | ±0 |
| Raphael Warnock | 2% | ±0 |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1% | ±0 |
| Tucker Carlson | 1% | ±0 |
| Donald Trump | 1% | ±0 |
| Thomas Massie | 1% | −0.7 |
View the market on Polymarket ↗
About this market
This market asks who will win the 2028 US presidential election. Each listed candidate is an outcome, and the market resolves to the person who wins the race. Resolution relies on three news sources: the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC. The market settles once all three call the race for the same candidate. If they have not agreed by the inauguration date, it resolves based on whoever is inaugurated. Prices can shift with developments such as candidates entering or leaving the race, primary and party nomination contests, polling trends, economic conditions, major news events, endorsements and changes in the wider political landscape. The odds shown on this page come from Polymarket and update live.
FAQ
What are the current odds for “Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?”?
At our last update (Nov 12, 2026 04:05 UTC), Polymarket traders priced Jon Ossoff at 17%. Prices move with trading and are not a forecast by That's Gonna.
When does this market resolve?
The market closes on 2028-11-08. It resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If they have not done so by the inauguration date, it resolves based on who is inaugurated.
How does this market resolve?
It resolves to the person who wins the 2028 US presidential election, as called by the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC together. If there is no joint call by the inauguration date, the person who is inaugurated is the winner.
Odds are market prices set by traders, not predictions by That's Gonna and not financial or betting advice. 18+ only; platform eligibility varies by country and state.